Let’s start with a thought experiment. You have 2 samples of 500 people each with a disease X, and you have a treatment Y. If you give this treatment Y to the first sample of 500 people, you have a 100% probability of saving 400 of those people. If you give the same treatment to the second sample, you have a 80% chance of saving all 500 people, but a 20% that you will save none. Which treatment group would you give the treatment to? 

Now, although it’s purely logical to question why the treatment doesn’t have the same impact on two people, the more important question to ask is: Why did you choose to act in the way you did in this hypothetical scenario? In this case, the expected value for both cases remains equal, so … what drives us to pick one treatment over the other? The answer is: Uncertainty. 

A similar online study found that when groups of people were presented with similar scenarios, the majority of them (~60% if you’re curious) sided towards the first option — saving the majority of the sample with a certain outcome. Many other studies have shown similar outcomes; for instance, a study published by Nature found that individuals who had a 50% chance of receiving an electric shock exhibited significantly higher levels of stress than individuals who knew they were going to experience the same shock. Point is, we seek certainty because we have an inherent desire for control. We stress about our decisions, and the consequences that may entail. We could fear that life may have “no intrinsic meaning”, giving us the desire to attempt to create meaning in the certainty of our actions. We feel anxious about the uncontrollable environment around us, prompting us to obtain as much certainty as we can. Essentially, this certainty allows us to experience a state of “order, emotional health and wellbeing”, critical qualities that ensure we are living optimally. Any circumstances which undermine this certainty — be impromptu speeches, any sudden run-ins, or even physical circumstances such as an unstable shelter — can foster senses of anxiety and stress. 

Ok, uncertainty may not be the most pleasant thing to experience. However, if we do the maths for the initial experiment, we would notice a sizable number of people also took the option to save the second group of people. While they forgo the certainty that option A provided, the probability of such a hefty reward was deemed worthy, despite the risk of attaining nothing at all. Contextually, these kinds of “leaps” occur more often than we think in our everyday lives; in fact, it is such leaps which drive us forward to gain the certainty we desire so much. If we’re university seniors cramming for finals, the uncertainty of the questions that will be on the paper drives us to study harder, even if we already may know the content well. If we are scavenging for gold alongside a creek in Ballarat, the uncertainty for the discovery drives us to dig deeper and look more meticulously, even if there is nothing there. If we adopt a mindset that everything around us may change in the click of a finger, that uncertainty drives us to live our best life and be the best versions we can be even if we are standing on a concrete block in an entirely sealed room. 

Arguably, we can never be too certain of anything. If the weather forecast reports clear skies for the rest of the day, we may still take an umbrella with us. If the bus is reported 2 minutes late, we may still get to the bus stop 5 minutes earlier. If we’re going on a day-long business trip, we may still bring our chargers for our devices even if our device is brand new and fully charged. Even in top quality scientific research, when a paper or new finding is published, there is a “p-value”, or probability value — essentially how certain we can be that the result wasn’t caused by random chance. These values can be as high as p=0.05 i.e. 5% chance of occurring by random chance, or as low as 0.0000003 i.e. 0.00003% chance. 

Our world is driven by uncertainty — and so are the decisions we make and actions we take. There is no “certainty” for doing well on a test, no “certainty” for scavenging for gold, and no “certainty” if the train outside your house is coming on time. But instead of condemning this uncertainty, let’s embrace the certainty of our actions and propel the certainty we have into something greater. Essentially, while we inherently condemn uncertainty and the many actions which increase levels of uncertainty (excluding “thrill seeking” actions), uncertainty can also serve as a booster to let you achieve the goals you want to achieve and be someone you never thought you could be. Now, I can’t promise you that with 100% certainty, but I can be at least 99% certain. So go on, the world’s not going to wait — it’s up to you.

Image credit: Medium